← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Mon, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trofense win | 40% | 43% | 2.25 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 30% | 26% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Trofense | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1441.40 | 1498.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.49 | -8.12 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| league points | 19.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.73 | 0.81 |
| state index | -1.05 | -0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |