← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Sun, May 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setubal win | 41% | 42% | 2.25 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.10 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 29% | 29% | 3.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Setubal | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 306.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1418.46 | 1472.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.83 | 38.75 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| league points | 22.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.85 | 1.08 |
| state index | -0.96 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |