← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Sun, May 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória SC win | 47% | 52% | 1.90 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.25 | fair |
| Naval win | 24% | 18% | 3.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitória SC | Naval |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1530.02 | 1418.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.13 | -9.72 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| league points | 32.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.04 |
| state index | -0.16 | -0.64 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |