← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Sun, May 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est Amadora win | 40% | 45% | 2.30 | value: +4% |
| Leixoes win | 30% | 29% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Est Amadora | Leixoes |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1449.46 | 1491.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.99 | -32.98 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| league points | 27.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.50 |
| state index | -0.99 | -0.62 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |