← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Sat, May 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 47% | 40% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.25 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 25% | 29% | 3.75 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 305.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1568.33 | 1684.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.80 | -11.18 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.55 |
| league points | 46.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.77 | 2.00 |
| state index | 0.64 | 0.77 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |