← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Sat, May 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 58% | 52% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 32% | 3.60 | value: +14% |
| Academica win | 16% | 17% | 5.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Academica | Sporting Clube de Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1484.66 | 1714.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.61 | 23.25 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| league points | 32.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 2.15 |
| state index | 0.05 | 1.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |