← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Sun, Apr 26, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 77% | 85% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 9% | 5.75 | fair |
| Setubal win | 7% | 6% | 13.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1395.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1808.86 | 1420.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.09 | -1.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| league points | 57.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.28 | 0.88 |
| state index | 1.89 | -0.74 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |