← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Sun, Apr 26, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naval win | 46% | 42% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.25 | fair |
| Rio Ave FC win | 26% | 27% | 3.65 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Naval | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1431.93 | 1377.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.41 | -7.95 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| league points | 27.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 0.80 |
| state index | -0.54 | -0.95 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |