← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Sun, Apr 26, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenenses win | 36% | 40% | 2.55 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 34% | 30% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1474.77 | 1559.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.56 | 1.28 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| league points | 21.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.84 | 1.72 |
| state index | -0.37 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |