← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Fri, Apr 24, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 65% | 72% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 18% | 4.20 | fair |
| Trofense win | 12% | 10% | 9.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | Trofense |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 297.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1588.24 | 1427.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.52 | -35.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| league points | 42.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 0.76 |
| state index | 0.36 | -1.06 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |