← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Sun, Apr 19, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 57% | 52% | 1.62 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 31% | 3.40 | value: +5% |
| Setubal win | 16% | 17% | 5.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Setubal | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 292.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1430.43 | 1669.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.55 | -16.62 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| league points | 22.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 1.92 |
| state index | -0.55 | 0.52 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |