← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Sun, Apr 19, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 57% | 61% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 18% | 3.60 | fair |
| Academica win | 17% | 20% | 5.50 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Academica | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1388.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1520.97 | 1845.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.37 | 16.61 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| league points | 31.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 2.25 |
| state index | 0.56 | 2.03 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |