← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Sat, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 38% | 39% | 2.40 | fair |
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 32% | 28% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 33% | 3.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 291.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1559.97 | 1587.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.18 | 12.52 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| league points | 42.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 1.71 |
| state index | 0.49 | 0.59 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |