← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Sat, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 49% | 42% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.20 | fair |
| Vitória SC win | 23% | 28% | 4.20 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitória SC | Sporting Clube de Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1536.35 | 1704.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.57 | 22.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| league points | 31.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 2.08 |
| state index | 0.13 | 1.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |