← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Mon, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 39% | 43% | 2.38 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.00 | fair |
| Trofense win | 30% | 28% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Trofense | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1446.36 | 1551.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.33 | -8.54 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| league points | 19.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.70 |
| state index | -0.52 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |