← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Sat, Apr 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leixoes win | 51% | 59% | 1.83 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 28% | 21% | 3.20 | fair |
| Rio Ave FC win | 20% | 20% | 4.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leixoes | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1497.65 | 1372.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -43.36 | -14.49 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| league points | 35.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 0.74 |
| state index | -0.85 | -1.13 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |