← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Sat, Apr 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 70% | 72% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 21% | 4.75 | fair |
| Academica win | 10% | 7% | 9.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Academica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 284.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1686.11 | 1473.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.96 | 30.67 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| league points | 46.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.22 |
| state index | 0.85 | 0.03 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |