← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Sat, Apr 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenenses win | 45% | 41% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.10 | fair |
| Setubal win | 25% | 31% | 4.20 | value: +30% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1463.22 | 1438.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.94 | -3.79 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| league points | 17.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.74 | 0.96 |
| state index | -1.01 | -0.48 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |