← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Fri, Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 35% | 32% | 2.70 | fair |
| Vitória SC win | 34% | 24% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 43% | 3.00 | value: +30% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Vitória SC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 283.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1454.66 | 1536.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.46 | -1.83 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| league points | 23.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.30 |
| state index | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |