← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Sun, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 41% | 35% | 2.20 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 34% | 3.00 | fair |
| Setubal win | 28% | 31% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Setubal | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 278.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1452.37 | 1575.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.36 | -4.49 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| league points | 22.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 20.96 | 20.96 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.68 |
| state index | -0.06 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |