← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Sun, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naval win | 42% | 39% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 34% | 3.00 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 27% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Naval | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 278.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| elo | 1426.03 | 1453.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.20 | 19.77 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| league points | 23.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 20.96 | 22.96 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 1.00 |
| state index | -0.51 | -0.04 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |