← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Sun, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 50% | 55% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 20% | 3.30 | fair |
| Leixoes win | 22% | 25% | 4.20 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leixoes | Sporting Clube de Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| elo | 1504.07 | 1694.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.82 | 27.98 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| league points | 35.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 22.96 | 21.96 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 2.00 |
| state index | -0.50 | 1.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |