← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Sat, Apr 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 49% | 59% | 1.85 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 28% | 17% | 3.40 | fair |
| Vitória SC win | 23% | 24% | 4.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitória SC | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1373.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1544.63 | 1791.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.14 | 13.95 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| league points | 30.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 20.96 | 19.96 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 2.18 |
| state index | 0.17 | 1.76 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |