← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Fri, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Academica win | 43% | 48% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.10 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 27% | 23% | 3.60 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Academica | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1464.82 | 1471.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.38 | -30.54 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| league points | 25.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| rest days | 18.96 | 18.96 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 0.77 |
| state index | 0.09 | -0.83 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |