← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Sat, Mar 14, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 66% | 65% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 20% | 4.20 | fair |
| Vitória SC win | 12% | 15% | 8.00 | value: +22% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Vitória SC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 256.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1695.67 | 1528.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.50 | -15.84 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| league points | 43.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 2.05 | 1.29 |
| state index | 0.99 | -0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |