← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Sun, Mar 8, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 57% | 55% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.50 | fair |
| Naval win | 17% | 22% | 5.75 | value: +26% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Naval | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 250.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1464.12 | 1731.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.26 | 4.44 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| league points | 23.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 2.00 |
| state index | -0.55 | 0.85 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |