← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Sun, Mar 8, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Academica win | 49% | 44% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.30 | fair |
| Trofense win | 23% | 27% | 4.00 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Academica | Trofense |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1451.45 | 1462.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.13 | 4.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| league points | 21.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 0.90 |
| state index | -0.30 | -0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |