← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Fri, Mar 6, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 36% | 35% | 2.62 | fair |
| Rio Ave FC win | 33% | 29% | 2.87 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 36% | 3.00 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1385.94 | 1559.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.98 | -5.72 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.77 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| league points | 16.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| state index | -0.51 | 0.12 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |