← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Sun, Mar 1, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trofense win | 40% | 39% | 2.25 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.00 | fair |
| Est Amadora win | 30% | 28% | 3.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Trofense | Est Amadora |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1463.73 | 1475.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.95 | 13.24 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.25 |
| league points | 17.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 1.26 |
| state index | -0.37 | -0.07 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |