← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Sun, Mar 1, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenenses win | 45% | 53% | 2.05 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.20 | fair |
| Naval win | 25% | 21% | 3.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Naval |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1498.12 | 1419.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.04 | -15.66 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| league points | 16.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.84 | 1.05 |
| state index | -0.53 | -0.89 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |