← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Sat, Feb 28, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 49% | 61% | 1.91 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 28% | 22% | 3.40 | fair |
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 23% | 17% | 4.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Sporting Clube de Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1338.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1784.11 | 1682.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.17 | -6.01 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.45 |
| league points | 41.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.16 | 1.95 |
| state index | 1.46 | 0.74 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |