← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Sat, Feb 28, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 43% | 42% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.20 | fair |
| Rio Ave FC win | 27% | 29% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 242.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1426.41 | 1397.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.52 | 6.66 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| league points | 16.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.84 | 0.84 |
| state index | -0.56 | -0.71 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |