← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Mon, Feb 23, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leixoes win | 50% | 49% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.25 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 22% | 22% | 4.33 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leixoes | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1541.01 | 1495.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.25 | -2.08 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| league points | 34.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.89 | 0.83 |
| state index | 0.49 | -0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |