← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Sun, Feb 22, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 41% | 37% | 2.20 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.10 | fair |
| Naval win | 29% | 32% | 3.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Naval | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 236.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1427.30 | 1567.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.40 | -5.22 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 20.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.61 |
| state index | -0.54 | 0.05 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |