← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Sun, Feb 22, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória SC win | 54% | 56% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.40 | fair |
| Trofense win | 19% | 18% | 5.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitória SC | Trofense |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1538.82 | 1449.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.91 | -20.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | — |
| league points | 24.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 0.78 |
| state index | 0.04 | -0.78 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |