← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Fri, Feb 20, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 61% | 63% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 16% | 3.75 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 15% | 22% | 6.50 | value: +41% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 234.00 | 1330.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1431.21 | 1779.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.07 | 6.57 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| league points | 16.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 2.11 |
| state index | -0.40 | 1.48 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |