← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Sun, Feb 15, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trofense win | 40% | 42% | 2.30 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 33% | 3.10 | fair |
| Naval win | 30% | 25% | 3.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Trofense | Naval |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1452.14 | 1424.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.05 | -8.88 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.25 |
| league points | 13.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.76 | 1.12 |
| state index | -0.40 | -0.66 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |