← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Sun, Feb 15, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 76% | 85% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 11% | 6.00 | fair |
| Rio Ave FC win | 7% | 4% | 15.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1325.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1822.12 | 1432.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.64 | -24.18 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| league points | 35.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.06 | 0.76 |
| state index | 1.51 | -0.79 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |