← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Sat, Feb 14, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 55% | 55% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
| Leixoes win | 18% | 19% | 5.50 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | Leixoes |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 228.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1580.16 | 1527.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.13 | 12.32 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 29.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 1.82 |
| state index | 0.60 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |