← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Sat, Feb 14, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 52% | 51% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.25 | fair |
| Est Amadora win | 20% | 25% | 4.75 | value: +17% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Est Amadora |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1561.87 | 1470.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.59 | 19.95 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| league points | 26.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 1.24 |
| state index | 0.19 | -0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |