← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Sat, Feb 14, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 53% | 52% | 1.73 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.40 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 19% | 18% | 5.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Sporting Clube de Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1502.25 | 1666.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.22 | -4.62 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| league points | 15.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.82 |
| state index | -0.26 | 0.62 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |