← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Fri, Feb 13, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 41% | 42% | 2.25 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 33% | 3.10 | fair |
| Vitória SC win | 28% | 25% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Vitória SC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1544.85 | 1553.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.51 | 20.41 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| league points | 29.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 1.41 |
| state index | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |