← Primeira Liga 2008-09 · Sun, Feb 8, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 40% | 47% | 2.30 | value: +8% |
| Academica win | 30% | 28% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 25% | 3.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | Academica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1378.78 | 1462.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.81 | 6.56 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| league points | 10.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.63 | 1.13 |
| state index | -1.30 | -0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |