← Primeira Liga 2007-08 · Sun, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória SC win | 64% | 71% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 20% | 4.00 | fair |
| Est Amadora win | 13% | 10% | 7.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitória SC | Est Amadora |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1580.16 | 1498.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.24 | -10.19 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.41 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| league points | 50.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.72 | 1.07 |
| state index | 0.18 | -0.76 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |