← Primeira Liga 2007-08 · Sun, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 39% | 49% | 2.37 | value: +15% |
| Vitória SC win | 33% | 27% | 2.75 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 24% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitória SC | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1031.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1587.58 | 1844.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.97 | 24.91 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.65 |
| league points | 49.00 | 69.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.81 | 2.56 |
| state index | 0.83 | 2.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |