← Primeira Liga 2007-08 · Mon, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenenses win | 40% | 51% | 2.37 | value: +20% |
| Setubal win | 30% | 19% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1562.24 | 1519.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.61 | 3.49 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| league points | 39.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.58 |
| state index | 0.26 | 0.02 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |