← Primeira Liga 2007-08 · Sun, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 67% | 65% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 16% | 4.20 | fair |
| Leiria win | 12% | 18% | 8.00 | value: +48% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leiria | Sporting Clube de Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1415.09 | 1729.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.91 | 9.28 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 12.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.46 | 1.77 |
| state index | -0.68 | 1.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |