← Primeira Liga 2007-08 · Sat, Apr 12, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 45% | 63% | 2.15 | value: +36% ⚠ |
| Draw | 29% | 20% | 3.20 | fair |
| Setubal win | 27% | 17% | 4.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Setubal | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1016.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1555.14 | 1832.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.74 | 8.68 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.90 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.65 |
| league points | 41.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 2.52 |
| state index | 0.56 | 1.76 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |