← Primeira Liga 2007-08 · Mon, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leixoes win | 39% | 42% | 2.40 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 36% | 2.90 | value: +5% |
| Belenenses win | 30% | 22% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leixoes | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1489.85 | 1571.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.32 | -32.62 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| league points | 22.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 1.38 |
| state index | -0.56 | -0.12 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |