← Primeira Liga 2007-08 · Sun, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naval win | 36% | 43% | 2.60 | value: +11% |
| Leiria win | 35% | 31% | 2.62 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leiria | Naval |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1384.24 | 1407.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.93 | -11.85 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 9.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.38 | 0.96 |
| state index | -1.29 | -0.85 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |